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Journal of the American Statistical Association
The Impact of Prior Distributions for Uncontrolled Confounding and Response Bias

To cite this paper:
Sander Greenland. Journal of the American Statistical Association. March 1, 2003, 98(461): 47-54. doi:10.1198/01621450338861905.

Sander Greenland

Sander Greenland is Professor, Department of Epidemiology, UCLA School of Public Health and Department of Statistics, UCLA College of Letters and Science, 22333 Swenson Drive, Topanga, CA 90290 (E-mail: ). The author thanks Babette Brumback, Thomas Richardson, James Robins, Jon Wake. eld, the associate editor, and the referees for helpful comments. This research was supported by the Electric Power Research Institute and by grant 1R29-ES07986 from the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences.



This article examines the potential for misleading inferences from conventional analyses and sensitivity analyses of observational data, and describes some proposed solutions based on specifying prior distributions for uncontrolled sources of bias. The issues are illustrated in a sensitivity analysis of confounding in a study of residential wire code and childhood leukemia and in a pooled analysis of 12 studies of magnetic-field measurements and childhood leukemia. Both analyses have been interpreted as evidence in favor of a causal effect of magnetic fields on leukemia risk. This interpretation is contrasted with results from analyses based on prior distributions for the unidentified bias parameters used in the original sensitivity-analysis model. These analyses indicate that accounting for uncontrolled confounding and response bias under a reasonable prior can substantially alter inferences about the existence of a magnetic-field effect. More generally, analyses with informative priors for unidentified bias parameters can help avoid misinterpretation of conventional results and ordinary sensitivity analyses.

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